China Traditional Export Sectors Slump vs. New Tracks Boom
Fresh data just released by China Customs. Some numbers really sting.
While the overall market shows resilience, specific sectors are facing significant headwinds. If you need assistance navigating current trade regulations or logistics, feel free to Contact us.
Below is a breakdown of the industries facing the toughest challenges this year.
The Data: Top 10 Categories with the Biggest YoY Declines
Here are the sectors seeing the sharpest contraction from January to October 2025:
- Boxes, bags & similar containers: −12.9%
- Furniture: −12.5%
- Toys: −11.0%
- Footwear: −10.8%
- Lighting fixtures, hardware & parts: −10.5%
- Boots & shoes: −10.0%
- Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) & herbal pieces: −8.6%
- Apparel & clothing accessories: −5.6%
- Plastic products: −4.1%
- Steel structures & prefabricated buildings: −3.8%
Market Analysis: The "Painful" Reality
The most concerning trend is the concentration of the decline. China’s classic "calling cards"—labor-intensive goods like luggage, furniture, toys, shoes, and clothing—basically swept the entire top 6 positions.
Even TCM, traditionally a resilient category and a popular gift for Chinese New Year, dropped by 8.6%. That is rare and signals a shift in consumption patterns.
Why is this happening?
Many factory owners say 2025 has been the toughest year in nearly two decades. The root causes include:
- Global De-stocking: Major retailers are still clearing excess inventory.
- Logistics Volatility: Ocean freight rates went "crazy up" and then crashed, disrupting pricing strategies.
- Consumer Behavior: Western consumers are tightening their wallets due to inflation.
- Seasonal Shifts: Christmas orders were delayed or pushed to post-holiday schedules.
The Silver Lining: The "New Trio" Charges Ahead
Despite the gloom in traditional sectors, the macro picture isn't entirely dark.
- Overall Growth: Nationwide exports (Jan–Oct) are still up +0.4% YoY.
- October Surge: October alone saw exports jump +12.7% YoY.
- Emerging Sectors: The "New Trio" (EVs, lithium batteries, and high-end equipment) continue to see robust growth, offsetting the decline in traditional manufacturing.
Conclusion: Surviving the Winter
To every foreign trade friend still fighting on the front line:
The traditional categories are hurting right now, but the new tracks are taking off. Hang in there—spring always comes after the toughest winter.
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